Houston, we have a problem.

A recent series of unfortunate events is threatening to rob me of a first round matchup that I very much want to see. This is disappointing. Several years ago, in its zeal to milk the post-season for maximum revenue, the NBA eliminated the 5 game format. As a result, witnessing improbable upsets are much less likely. Conversely, witnessing lame T Mobile and All State commercials are much more likely. Let's face it. The 1st round of the playoffs can be boring even for the most diehard fans. The possibility of a first round upset make these initial games interesting or, at the very least, watchable. Despite Houston's current struggles, seeing them take on the Spurs or Thunder in the first round would be very entertaining.

I don't mean to take anything away from the Nuggets or Suns. Both teams have good stories- they have little star power and have fought tooth and nail to be competitive in the brutal Western Conference. The Nuggets had their franchise player defect to a bigger market and became a better team as a result. How often does that happen? Since Melo moved to midtown, the Nuggets play the game unselfishly. They play the game with passion. They have guys known as "the Manimal" and "the Birdman" who are as ferocious as their ThunderCats-like nicknames would suggest. Salt Lake City is the new Gilligan's Island for NBA castaways. Danilo Galinari, Al Harrington, and Ty Lawson have all shined in their new environment. Javale McGee and Rudy Fernandez may follow suit.

It's hard not to root for this Phoenix Suns team. Steve Nash and Grant Hill are still great players when most athletes their age have moved on to commentating or Dancing with the Stars. Some athletes talk about loyalty in press conferences. Two time MVP Steve Nash has never requested a trade despite being constantly lured to play for more competitive teams. Guys like Marcin Gortat, Channing Frye, Josh Childress, and Michael Redd have found a home in Phoenix and the team has chemistry.

Alas, I don't watch professional basketball for the sappy back stories. In fact, when the obligatory feel good segments come on at halftime, I tell the bartender to turn off the sound. I watch professional basketball to see the game I love played at the highest level. Phoenix and Denver have no chance of beating the Spurs or Thunder. Basketball is all about matchups and they don't match up well with either team.

Houston split the season series with both teams because they match up well with them. For several weeks, Goran "Dragon" Dragic was playing as well as any point guard in the league. The kid is no game manager. He is a game changer. Will he outplay Tony Parker or Russell Westbrook in a 7 game series? Maybe not. He will make them play defense every possession and bait them into making the games a 1 on 1 matchup. A scary thought if you're the Oklahoma City Thunder.



The Rockets have quality big men. Luis Scola is a great player. He can score in the post. He can knock down the 10 foot jumper. He passes the ball well. The power forwards on either team would have a hard time defending him. The two headed monster of Marcus Camby and Samuel Dalembert can anchor that defense, block shots, and control the paint. Collectively, they are a better center tandem than what San Antonio or OKC have.

The Rockets have solid role players. Chase Budinger, Chandler Parsons, and Courtney Lee are all athletic young players who can knock down shots when left open. The Rockets have a dangerous bench. The one-two punch of Kyle Lowry and Earl Boykins could be a problem for the Spurs or Thunder. Sharpshooter Kevin Martin may be healthy enough to come off the bench once the post-season starts.

The Rockets will need to win their final 3 games to have a shot at making the Playoffs. Let's hope that they do. I would much rather see a competitive series than a compelling storyline.

Hoops Talk Episode 3 - 04.16.12

You wouldn't like me when I'm angry....  A rant about how terrible the Bullets are:

Hoops Talk Video Blog - Episode 2

My 2nd video blog!  Discussing Lob City, the Kings' young talent, and the Chicago Bulls' injury woes.

The MVP Conundrum

This subject has always been confusing to me.  How do the powers that be choose the the NBA's Most Valuable Player?  Is the Maurice Podoloff trophy given to the "most valuable player" or to the "best player on a team most likely to win it all"?  The fact that Kevin Durant and Lebron James are the top two candidates on most sports writers' lists leads me to believe that the decision is based on the latter criteria rather than the former.

With 40 wins, the Oklahoma City Thunder have the best record in the competitive Western Conference.  Durant is averaging 27.5 ppg this season and has dropped 30 or more points on 19 different occasions.  The reigning scoring champ seems even more focused this season and his buzzer-beating 3-pointer versus the Dallas Mavericks was certainly MVP-like.  With 37 wins, the Miami Heat are 3 games behind the Bulls for the best record in the much improved Eastern Conference.  Lebron is averaging 26.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists per game and on four occasions he has been 1 or 2 assists shy of triple-double.  His low-post game is much improved as is his shot selection.  Despite a pair of mini-slumps, the Heat have been rolling this season.  Oklahoma and Miami could very well meet in the Finals and both Kevin Durant and Lebron James are having remarkable seasons.

What if the MVP award was truly about being valuable to your team?  Both Durant and Lebron have a lot of help.  Durant plays alongside Russell Westbrook, one of the better point guards in the NBA, and there is no shortage of talent on that Thunder squad.  James Harden, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, and Thabo Sefalosha are all very good players.  Lebron James plays alongside Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, who are (arguably) one of the 3 or 4 best players at their respective positions.  Russell Westbrook has carried the Thunder to a win numerous times.  Wade or Bosh have taken over their share of games as well.  In the fourth quarter of a close game, Westbrook and Wade are just as likely to have the ball in their hands as their superstar counterparts.  How valuable does that make Durant and James to their teams?

If given a vote, I would have Dwight Howard and Kevin Love as my top two candidates.  Both players are the best at their respective positions (in my humble opinion) and both certainly have the numbers to justify MVP consideration.  Dwight Howard is averaging nearly 21 points and 15 rebounds a game.  He has already had eight games with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds this year including that ridiculous 45 point, 23 rebound performance versus the Golden State Warriors.  The reigning Defensive Player of the Year single-handedly makes a bunch of mediocre defenders into a good defensive team and a mediocre team into a Playoff contender.

Kevin Love is averaging 26 points and 14 rebounds a game and leads the league with 44 double-doubles this season.  Sixteen times he has scored 30 or more points and pulled down 10 or more rebounds in the same game.  In the much anticipated showdown with Blake Griffin and the Clippers, Love's 39 point, 17 rebound effort capped off by his buzzer-beating game-winner was certainly MVP-like.  His more recent 51 point performance versus Oklahoma City was nothing short of spectacular.

Both Dwight Howard and Kevin Love are thriving without nearly the talent around them that Durant and Lebron have.  Who are the 2nd and 3rd best players on the Magic?  Ryan Anderson and Jameer Nelson?  Glen Davis and Jason Richardson?  What about on this Ricky Rubio-less Timberwolves team?  Michael Beasley and Nikola Pecovic?  JJ Barea and Luc Ridnour?  Do me a favor.  Say these two sentences aloud.

"In other news, the Miami Heat have agreed to trade Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh to the Orlando Magic for Ryan Anderson and Glen "Big Baby" Davis."

"Today the Oklahoma City Thunder have agreed, in principle, to trade Russell Westbrook to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Luc Ridnour."

Both of those statements sound pretty absurd, right?  The tired old adage of "rewarding winning" will probably disqualify Howard and Love from actually winning MVP honors this season, which is a shame.  They are having amazing seasons despite having teams game plan to get the ball out of their hands every single night.  I cannot think of two players who are more valuable to their teams than they are.  Can you?

First Ever Video Blog!

Check it out!

The Final Playoff Spot in the East

I hope that the Milwaukee Bucks beat out the Knicks for that 8th and final Playoff spot in the East.  There, I said it.  Please don't mistake me for a fickle New Yorker who has jumped off the Knicks' formerly crowded bandwagon in recent weeks.  This has little to do with the six game losing streak, Amare's injured back, Melo's sore groin, or the fact that Jeremy Lin has gone from franchise savior to solid backup in a matter of weeks.  This has everything to do with the fact that this new look Milwaukee Bucks team is much more intriguing to me than the current collection of stars on the New York Knicks' roster.

Let us examine the trade deadline move that made this team so intriguing to me.  Both Milwaukee and Golden State were spinning their respective wheels this year.  Both had players with real trade value.  The two teams pretty much made an even swap.  Andrew Bogut for Monta Ellis.  This trade has undoubtedly left both GM's wide open for criticism from their fans.  Last week Golden State's new owner Joe Lacob was booed at a pre-game ceremony retiring Chris Mullin's jersey.  John Hammond will certainly come under fire from the Bucks' fans if this team doesn't show signs of improvement quickly.
 
Improvement could happen quickly.  Milwaukee now has a very talented tandem of guards.  Both are dynamic playmakers who can score with the best of them.  As a result, there are some understandable concerns about the two of them co-existing.  Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis are both volume shooters and conventional wisdom says that having two shoot-first guards in the starting lineup rarely works.  Ask any Knicks fan how making Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury the highest paid guard combo in the league worked out for them.  Normally, I agree with this logic but I believe that these two could be very good for years to come.  Tim Hardaway and Mitch Richmond good.  Isaiah Thomas and Joe Dumars good.  John Stockton and Jeff Hornacek good.  I am being serious.

The two guards have styles that are more complimentary than people think.  Brandon Jennings is a scoring point guard but I think that this is largely due to the lack of Andrew Bogut and other playmaking options on the team.  The fundamentally sound Jennings has all of the tools to be a traditional point guard and had no problem deferring to John Salmons 2 years ago.  Monta Ellis is a scoring 2 guard who can single-handedly take over a game on any given night.  He is also a lightning quick slasher who is good at finding teammates on the perimeter after he gets into the paint.  A great spot up 3-point shooter like Jennings should get a lot more open looks with Ellis on the floor.  It will take time for the two to learn how to play together but when they do, they could become a dominant force in the East.

The Bucks will need more talent to seriously compete for a championship but I think that they are well on their way.  Scott Skiles is a good coach.  Eryan Illyasova, Drew Gooden, and Mike Dunleavy are quality forwards.  Epke Udoh and Luc Mbah a Moute are good defenders who will fit right in with the physical style of play that Skiles preaches.  Kwame Brown and Larry Sanders are probably not the long term answer at center but they are serviceable for the time being.  Getting some Playoff experience this year could help the team become more competitive next year.  It worked for Indiana.  In four weeks, I hope that the most exciting duo of guards in the Eastern Conference will still be playing games.

Showtime they are not

After yet another road loss, a reporter asked Kobe if the offense was under construction.  He quipped that,

"We're still working on the blueprints, actually."

Although he was smiling, I'm not convinced that the man was joking.

The Los Angeles Lakers' offense is seriously struggling.  In other news, Greece's economy isn't doing so well.

Is this all that surprising?  Let's not forget that the team has undergone major changes since last season.  Lakers fans need to come to grips with the fact that Adam Morrison has left for Turkey and he ain't coming back.  Also, the Phil Jackson regime is gone and they took the triangle offense (and Phil's orthopedic throne) with them.  They had a 10 point quarter versus the Magic last week and have scored under 100 points in 17 of their last 19 games.  In Portland, the Lakers somehow managed to miss every 3 pointer they attempted, including a woeful 0-5 performance by Steve Blake.  Chris Paul is not walking through that door, folks (at least not in a purple and gold uniform) and right now the Lakers seem lost out there.

In the 3 consecutive years where the Lakers made it to the NBA Finals, they had good balance offensively.  It was a simple time.  They ran the triangle offense using Kobe and Pau as their primary scorers and playmakers.  They were the Jordan and Pippen of that team and were used in a very similar manner.  Phil rarely took both of them out of the game at the same time.  Roles for everybody else on the team were clearly defined and role players did their part.  D Fish was there to handle the ball, pass to Kobe or Gasol, and knock down the open shot.  His role was simple but not easy.  Ron Artest was there to defend the other team's best perimeter scorer.  On offense, Phil kept him on a sort leash.  He was asked to knock down the open shot and occasionally attack the basket in a clear mismatch situation.  Defining Andrew Bynum's role is a bit more difficult.  He anchored the defense, clogged the paint, and collected lots of rebounds.  It seems as though he was being groomed to be a primary scorer but chronic knee injuries put the kibosh on that.

The Lakers also relied heavily on their bench for scoring.  Reigning 6th Man of the Year Lamar Odom was the King of the "Killer B's".  Perhaps "Queen B" would be more of an apt analogy but that just sounds weird.  Odom was the second unit's primary scorer, playmaker, and ball handler.  Shannon Brown was there for alley-oops, put back dunks, and 3-pointers.  Sasha Vujacic spaced the floor with his outside shooting.  Those 3 players have since left town and while Goldie Loc (Andrew Goudelock) had a nice game the other night, I hardly think that this second unit as it's currently constructed is scaring anybody.  Goudelock, Troy Murphy, Devin Ebanks, Jason Kapono, and Darius Morris are all averaging about 3 points or less per game.  Al Harrington single handedly gives Denver as much scoring as all of them put together.

What is the "blueprint" for the Lakers' offense?  Among the fraternity of NBA coaches, Mike Brown is a well respected figure.  As a head coach, he does certain things quite well.  Being creative with his offense is not one of them.  The way he utilized (or did not utilize) Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison, JJ Hickson, Delonte West, and Shaquille O'Neal in Cleveland seemed strange at times.  Some of his decisions regarding substitutions and playing time were downright puzzling.  He inherited a Lakers team that has been pretty efficient since Pau Gasol came to town.  They currently rank 18th in offensive efficiency.

Let's start with the obvious.  This Lakers' offense is still built around 2 players.  Are they holding up their end of the bargain?  Kobe is still the primary scorer and playmaker on this team.  Nowadays the league's leading scorer is doing way more scoring than making plays for others.  One could argue that this is in part due to the poor outside shooting from his teammates.  Matt Barnes, Derek Fisher, Steve Blake, and Troy Murphy haven't found their shooting touch and no one is ever going to mistake Metta World Peace for Steve Kerr.  One could just as easily argue that Kobe has been taking too many bad shots and not looking to pass the ball enough.  This season Kobe is shooting more jump shots than ever and generating less assists per game.  Pau Gasol has not looked like himself either.  He is not establishing himself in the low post as much and, as a result, he is not scoring very efficiently.  Lately he has been settling for outside jump shots.  The biggest downside to this is that we have seen much less of that great passing from the low post that he was known for.  Without Kobe and Gasol consistently setting up their teammates, this offense looks very mediocre.

One bright spot has been that with limited touches Andrew Bynum has shown flashes of dominance.  Limited being the operative word.  Is it finally time to give Bynum the oppportunity to be a primary scorer?  The Lakers took Bynum in the first round and (until recently) resisted every offer to trade him.  He is the only Laker aside from Kobe and Bynum that is able to create offense without having to be left open.  Could his low post scoring be the answer to the Lakers' offensive woes?  Could getting him the ball more help guys like Fisher, Barnes, World Peace, and McRoberts find their mojo?  The only way to find out would be to give him the ball a lot more than they have been.  Phil Jackson seemed to want Bynum to eventually become the focal point of the offense but it never actually happened.  The offense has always run through Kobe and Gasol.  Trying to change that now would be perceived as either foolish or incredibly bold.

What should Mike Brown do?  He is their head coach and the buck stops with him.  Brown knew when he took this job that anything less than a Finals appearance would be viewed as a failure.  At 12-9, the Lakers are the 8th seed in the Western Conference and would be out of Playoff contention with another loss or a Spurs win.  Mike Brown is a defensive minded coach and fixing this offense will be a difficult task for anybody.  Will he have the chutzpah to tell Kobe to stop shooting so much?  Can he tell Pau that he will be benched if he keeps settling for jump shots?  Will he be willing to take a player out of the game that's not hitting open shots, even if that means replacing them with a worse defender?  Much has been made of the lack of practice time due to the lockout.  This is especially challenging for teams attempting to learn new systems with new coaches.  I imagine that this is a factor but I have doubts that this offense is going to fix itself without being shaken up either through personnel changes or scheme adjustments.  Make no mistake.  There is plenty of basketball left to be played, plenty of time to make trades, and plenty of opportunities for Mike Brown to prove his doubters wrong.  Let us see what "blueprint" Mike Brown is constructing.